Explosive North London Derby to mark bonfire weekend

Match Preview: Arsenal vs Tottenham – Premier League – 06.11.2016

Form plays a vital role in almost every match but a strange phenomenon exists where it has no bearing on the performance of either side in a North London Derby. There’s something hypnotic about this fixture that convinces the players it’s a cup final and everything that has gone before it is immaterial.

Beating Sp*rs has never felt more important and if they were any other team their failure to win any of their last 6 matches, scoring only 3 goals along the way, compared to Arsenal’s imperious form so far this season I would be relishing this match with abandon. There’s something nagging away at me in the pit of my stomach though and I cannot work out if it is confidence or concern. Perhaps it is both.

I am always wary of Tottenham for no matter how contrasting our fortunes these matches are impossible to predict. Think 2-2, 5-4, 2-3, 5-2 and the second 5-2 – and those are result from just the last decade or so. The Gunners are in excellent form, particularly Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil. Their only defeat of the campaign so far came against Liverpool on the opening weekend. Sp*rs have stuttered of late, particularly in the Champions League, and are struggling for goals. Yet still I am wary of them.

North London Derbies are wondrous, fascinating encounters, often decided by a moment of magic, error or refereeing horror show (Mike Dean) so Arsenal must control the game from the off. If passed fit, Theo Walcott will be a huge goal threat and benefit to the team. Arsenal looked a little lopsided on the right hand side in midweek and if Bellerin doesn’t get the all clear then Theo’s newfound defensive determination will be vital in protecting our flank. Theo also has a knack for scoring against Tottenham and with Özil in fine fettle he’ll shine with the quality of pass he’ll receive.

Wenger has stated he doesn’t consider any player ‘Plan B’ but if Arsenal ever need one then Olivier Giroud is as good as they come. His return to the squad has been marked with three goals in two games and he may feel slightly unlucky to miss this game but pace is going to be crucial in this match as Arsenal have looked ponderous with the ball sans Cazorla. It would be wise to start with Xhaka rather than Elneny and Coquelin because Tottenham have an extremely talented midfield and we cannot afford to be caught with our trousers down making sloppy passes.

Although I have said these matches are notoriously hard to predict I will put my neck out and say I predict pain for Arsenal if we persist with an unimaginative midfield. Contrary to popular belief, Coquelin can pass the ball and he has a great passing range. The real issue is his instinctive passing and the torpidity of his decision making. Coquelin, and Elneny to an extent, take a extra second or two to make their passing decision or next that extra look to see where their man is and that can be costly. One is fine but Arsenal cannot afford both against this calibre of opposition.

I’ll be in attendance and am hoping for a good win but given my record with Category A league matches (I am yet to see Arsenal win having spent the best part of £100 on a ticket) I will take a scrappy 1-0.

Predicted Line-up

Cech; Bellerin, Mustafi, Koscielny, Gibbs; Coquelin, Xhaka; Özil; Iwobi, Alexis, Walcott

I expect to see substitute appearances from Oxlade-Chamberlain, Giroud and Ramsey.

Match Quote

“From our recent history we have show that even when we were down or when we were tested mentally, we had the right response and that mental aspect will of course be very important” – Arsène Wenger

Last 3 Meetings

• Tottenham 2-2 Arsenal (05.03.2016)
• Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham (08.11.2015)
• Tottenham 1-2 Arsenal (23.09.2015)

Form Guide

Arsenal
WWWDW

Tottenham
LDLDD

Opposition watch

Tottenham have not won in their last 6 matches – since they beat Manchester City on 2nd October. November is notoriously a difficult month for Arsenal but they have started it in good fashion coming from two goals down to win 3-2 against Ludogorets. Sp*rs have had a tough October and their November doesn’t look any easier with three away London derbies this month. They will be absolutely chomping at the bit to get some points on the board. Despite their poor October they’ve somehow managed to keep pace with the pack at the top of the table and credit to them – it’s not an easy thing to do.

A lot of their troubles have been due to lack of depth in the centre-forward position with Harry Kane injured. The Dutch Soldado has struggled to fill the void and as a result Tottenham have scored just three goals in their last six matches. Kane has a good record against Arsenal but it would be a surprise to see him start as Pochettino rarely risks his players unnecessarily. I have a sneaking feeling that the Sp*rs manager will set his team up for a draw and try to frustrate Arsenal into making a mistake in the hopes of grabbing a slim victory. A draw keeps them in touch and given the recent form of both sides it will feel like a victory to them.

Factfile

• Tottenham have only won once at Arsenal in 26 matches in all competitions since May 1993 (D10, L15). That was their 3-2 win in November 2010, when they fought back from 2-0 down at half-time.
• Arsenal are winless in their last four Premier League games against Sp*rs (D3, L1) – they have never gone five league games without a victory against their local rivals under Arsene Wenger. They did, however, beat Tottenham in the League Cup last season.
• Mauricio Pochettino is unbeaten in his four league games against Arsenal since arriving at White Hart Lane. No Sp*rs boss has ever gone unbeaten in their first five top-flight matches against the Gunners.
• The team scoring first has failed to win this fixture on 23 occasions, the highest number in Premier League history (15 draws, eight defeats).
• The Gunners have won 10 of their last 11 games in league and cup, scoring a total of 32 goals.
• Sp*rs have the best defensive record in the Premier League, conceding just five goals.
• Arsenal have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games (W12, D7).
• Tottenham are unbeaten in their first 10 league games for the first time since the 1990-91 season. They finished 10th that year.
• Mesut Özil has been directly involved in eight goals in his last five games for Arsenal in all competitions (five goals and three assists).
• Avoiding defeat would see Sp*rs go unbeaten in their opening 11 top-flight matches for the third time, after 1960-61 (16 games) and 1959-60 (12 games). They finished those campaigns first and third respectively (although that was under the two points for a win system).
• Tottenham could draw four consecutive league matches for the first time since April 2008.
• The only previous north London derby that kicked off at noon in the Premier League was in November 2004 – Arsenal won 5-4 at White Hart Lane.

Courtesy of Opta & BBC Sport.

Prediction

I’m going for an optimistic 3-0 to Arsenal. Walcott, Alexis and Giroud.

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