What Dropped Points Will Cost Arsenal?
Let me start by saying that I am not the sort of person to scapegoat a player; that’s not my style. I have strong opinions on players sure, but I wouldn’t ever pick out one player and blame them for an entire season. A game maybe, if it’s warranted, but never a season.
Gervinho for example. I have very strong opinions on him. I think he has amazing talent but awful execution of said talent. He could be something special but more often than not he is something distinctly average at best. This is an opinion some share and some don’t and the cause of many heated debates.
Ramsey is another. I hate the way people scapegoat him and have also had many heated debates defending the lad and have lost count of the amount of blogs I’ve written in his defence, and Theo’s, and Per’s and Giroud’s. All players the boo-boys hop to and from to blame our season/s on.
Sagna’s mistake against United is pretty much the reason for this blog today. Some will call me a hypocrite and say I am scapegoating him, in fact many have already, but from my perspective I don’t think I am. I’m not blaming him for the season although I do apportion more blame on his shoulders for the United result than I do the rest of the team. Harsh? Maybe. Justified? Also maybe. Grossly unfair? No.
Needless penalty to concede
I said at the time and again today that if we don’t make the top four we can look at that mistake as a huge cause. It wouldn’t be the cause but it would be one of the most significant, in my opinion.
Sagna has a name and that is why I am using it but it really could have been anyone. It is the mistake, not the person, that I worry may be a season defining moment. I have to mention the name when talking about an incident otherwise people may not know what I am talking about but to me the name is irrelevant (unless of course it is something that happens every single week).
The reason I worry that particular mistake, over other mistakes, may define our season is the timing. I have a belief, some think it is bonkers, some radical, some totally agree, and that belief is, points dropped near the end of the season have a great significance than points dropped at the beginning or middle. Why? Because there is less time to recover. When we lost 2-0 to Liverpool, 8-2 to United, 4-3 to Blackburn and 2-1 to Tottenham did it matter? Of course it did but did it make the champions league spots unobtainable? Evidently not.
It didn’t make the top four spots unobtainable because we still had 31 games and thus 93 points to play for. In fact, we claimed 22 out of the next 24 points before another mini-blip.
The three back to back losses in January 2012, did they put 3rd spot out of reach? No because we had 16 games left and thus 48 points to play for, which wouldn’t have changed our league position had we won them all but would have put us only 5 points behind the champions and possibly would’ve given RvP a reason to stay, who knows, total speculation. However, the point is, the games before January whilst important to our league finish were “recoverable” from if mistakes were made. Losing to QPR and Wigan as well as drawing with Chelsea, Stoke and Norwich potentially were not because we had fewer games to build momentum and put pressure on our rivals at the most crucial of times. Thankfully we still crossed the line.
Recovery
Do you think Chelsea or Totteringham would worry about Arsenal being a point or so behind with 25 games to go more than they would with 5 games to go? No. They wouldn’t even be worried the same amount. The closer you get to the finishing line the more things matter.
An example would be, who do you think would be punished more for making a mistake, a marathon runner or a sprinter? The sprinter right? Because they don’t have the distance to make it up. If the marathon runner makes a mistake with a mile to go they probably won’t recover either but if they made one with 20, 15, 10 miles to go they could.
Another example would be United winning the league against Villa. Was that victory against Villa more important than all the others, the same or less so? I’d say more and I’m sure the United players would too. If they didn’t beat Villa and lost all of their remaining games they may not have been crowned champions but they knew if they won that game, not the 30-odd before it, but that game, they would be champions. They made mistakes along the way, not many grant you, but they made mistakes and they recovered from it and put themselves in the position to finish top. Just like 2002 when we won at Old Trafford. That win clinched the league, without it we may not have been champions.
Clincher
Back to that mistake and that is the position we were in. We made mistakes, individually and collectively, recovered from them and put ourselves in a position where our destiny was in our hands. Win our games, we finish third/fourth. We went one nil up and then had something to lose which due to that mistake we did. Can we say for certain we would have won without the mistake? No, that cannot be known, but that doesn’t make the mistake any less crucial.
That is why I believe that mistake could, probably won’t but could, prove to be more costly than the same player (I’m honestly not singling him out, it just so happened that was the last big defensive mistake that cost us point IMO) passing the ball to Fellaini to score the equaliser when we played Everton in November. We’ve had time to recover from that and pick points up and put our destiny in our hands however when we drew with United we handed our destiny other to two other clubs. They will probably hand it back very soon but at this stage of the season we shouldn’t be counting on gifts.
Some people who I respect very much for their opinions, even if I disagree with them, have said that Giroud missing opportunities etc are as much as a cause for our ‘situation’ than defensive mistakes from any player. I don’t agree and maybe my reasoning is flawed or just naïve but I stick by it.
In days gone by it used to be 2 points for a win (before my time) but the reason for that kind of shapes my opinion. For me, all games start with each team holding a point each, if you score more than the other team you take their point (which is why it used to be 2 for a win) and get an extra one as well. If you finish nil-nil you walk away with the point you started with. If you go behind and then claw back for a draw you have ‘won’ the point you started with. If you go ahead you have three points to add to your tally at the final whistle. If however, in that time you concede the same amount of goals you scored you have to give a point back to the other team (and one is given back to the universe or something). Which is why people say “that’s two points dropped”. You were winning and you lost the points. Obviously if you lose you call it 3 points down the drain but technically it’s only 1 unless of course you were ahead, then you really have lost 3 points.
A sight not rare enough but not entirely season defining
It is for this reason I don’t put missed opportunities to score above or on the same level as a defensive mistake. Call me crazy, call me stupid but there was a reason we made up “1-nil to the Arsenal” and there’s a reason it only takes one goal to win a football match. If it’s the last game of the season and you need a win to secure your target and it’s nil-nil and you miss an easy shot then of course it’s the same but with 35, 30, 25, 20, heck even 5 games to go it’s not the same in my book as a defensive error (no matter the culprit/s).
There are obvious flaws in my argument and my reasoning but I’m not here to present an airtight argument. The Giroud chances at Everton we could say would’ve put us at an advantage if he had scored but it was a nil-nil game and we still had five left to play so with 15 points up for grabs I don’t think it is on a par with giving away a 1-nil lead. Sure, it counts and we could’ve done with those chances being buried but they weren’t. In one situation we were chasing a lead and didn’t get it, despite trying hard to. In the other situation we had a lead and gave it away carelessly. If United had scored in a different manner from a non-mistake situation there’d be nothing to “complain” about. We can also say that we could’ve gone on to win the game 2-1 but I think that is more unfair than mildly berating a player for a headless mistake as blaming the team for not scoring more after being in a winning position and then seeing that lead slip for no reason just before half-time is harsh in my book.
I guess my point, which is probably getting a bit lost, is that mistake against United or any other mistake that comes in the next few games could well shape our season. If we win our remaining games but don’t make the top four we could pin point that mistake as the turning point. Sure we made mistakes before that but we recovered from them and got back into the driving seat. The last few games of the season are like cup games and mistakes are incredibly hard to bounce back from.
It may seem like I am blaming Sagna as an individual, I am not. I blame him (and it could be anyone) for making a mistake that was unnecessary and could prove fatal to our top four hopes given we were in a position to claim a top four spot without relying on other results.
I’m still confident we’ll take fourth at the least but I’d much rather it was up to us and not down to other results, especially at this stage of the season.
I’m sure many of you will disagree and that is fine, I welcome opposing comments but before I go I want to leave you with something to ponder.
You can build a house with the best foundations in the world but if you don’t execute the building of the house properly you won’t have a safe house to live in and it could tumble at any moment. However, you can build average foundations, making a few mistakes along the way, but still have the finished house pass building regulations. What goes before is important but what happens at the end is final, vitally so, because it cannot be built upon.
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Well now Chelsea have beaten Man U and if Spurs win on Wednesday against Chelsea and they both win all their remaining games Arsenal will finish 5th even if they win their remaining games, is that right?
That’s right
I read all of that and I’ve been left confused, what point you were making here?
That Sagna’s mistake at United may cost us more than mistakes before it
Oh dear well i think Arsenal will be out of the top 4 now after the other 2 having very lucky win’s.
It wil be so close, I think the chavs spuds game will be a draw, I still think if arsenal win against Wigan and Newcastle we will be in champs league
I hope you are right but if Chelsea win it will be ok but is the other’s win then i think that will be the top 4.
You are absolutely right bro,soon as that manu v che match ended my mind flashed straight back to that not only childish but dubious back pass from a fearful and shaky sagna to rvp and find out we could be done for with that singular criminal act from a so called professional footballer who can’t even deliver a decent cross in to an opponent 18 yard box season in season out yet the boss sees nothing wrong with him.
The title you gave your article makes one think that you’re sure Arsenal will fall short! “would” and not “will” would do. Thanx.
If we’re going to pick over verbs it should be “could” not “would”.
If Anything i would blame the Sagna mistake and you guys must of remembered Artetas 93rd minute Penalty miss against Fulham Criminal!
Months ago, plenty of time to recover.
Spuds winning is not likely because a Chelsea win means they can focus on that cheap version of a UEFA cup. Chelsea will win or draw on Wed and SPUDS will be doing the Thursday deal yet again next year.
I hope you are right and today for the first time (and last) in my life i was supporting Manure and now i will be supporting Chelsea on Wednesday but i agree Chelsea will want to win this and concentrate on that little EC, maybe stamp on Bale’s toe early in the game will do it..
Spuds will lose two more games. Chelsea and stoke away.
Think so?
I have a couple of bridges going cheap, Brooklyn and Golden Gate, just fire me your credit card details and they can be yours…
Silly article. 3 points are 3 points no matter the time of year. A mistake in the first game is as bad as one in the last.
At least I explained why I feel differently. You’ve just made a comment I find as silly as you find mine but have given no counter argument.
You’ll also find I never said 3 points at the beginning of the season are better or worse than 3 at the end. It’s obviously the same. What I actually wrote about was mistakes. Making a mistake in the first game in the game scheme of things is far less likely to matter than one in the last few games.
If we went into the last game of the season a point ahead of Spurs and dropped points because of a defensive mistake we can’t blame a mistake from September. That would be asinine. We were in the driving seat and a mistake in the last game of the season cost us. At this stage of the season each game is like a cup final. Second chances are almost non-existent whereas second chances are quite plentiful when you have 10/20/30 games left.
If you want to present a proper counter-argument I’d love to hear it but your comment was just plain weak as a dismissal of my opinion.
You did say 3 points at the beginning of the season are better or worse than 3 at the end, although not in those exact words you said;
“points dropped near the end of the season have a great significance than points dropped at the beginning or middle.”
Just saying, you did say it.
English is a complex language as I am sure you know and many words have more than one meaning. Significance means importance but it also means consequence and it is the latter that suits my intended use of the word. Sorry if you inferred differently but I can assure you that your interpretation was not the intended outcome.
Daniel, I’m struggling to get my head around the idea that dropping points in game one is any different to dropping points in ANY other game.
Whether because of a mistake by an individual player or a moment of brilliance by the opposition, failing to score more goals than they do results in the team’s final league position.
If we came in 2nd by a 2 point margin, then it is that game that counts, be it the very first or the very last of the season.
Neil, if we only dropped 2 points in the whole season (impossible but for arguments sake) and it was in the first game of the season then sure those points would be the reason we finished 2nd but that would probably never happen.
A league is like a marathon no? Do managers, players, pundits et al all not say it is a marathon not a sprint? If you stumble in a marathon at the beginning and find yourself behind you have time to recover. If you are ahead (or where you want to be) heading into the final stretch and you stumble again the likelihood is you won’t recover your position.
Mathematically speaking you are correct, points dropped are the same no matter the game but I’m not talking about mathematics. I’m talking about being in a position to finish where you want to finish and giving away careless and unnecessary goals to drop points.
It’s about the finish. You can start badly yet still finish where you want but you can’t finish badly unless the race is already over. Our race is still being run and dropping points from a leading position with a few games to go in my book is more significant than dropping points in December for example.
If you think you can apportion “blame” equally across all dropped points then you’re basically say that we already had fourth lined up in September. We didn’t, we had 1st lined up and the points we dropped made 2nd our most realistic target and then more dropped points made 3rd our most realistic target and more dropped points made 4th our most realistic target and as 4th is our minimum target any more dropped points sees us miss that target.
Yes, all dropped points have significance but I can’t say points dropped in September/October etc made us miss 4th (if we do), I say it made us miss 1st. As the season develops your expectations are adjusted according to performances/results. Ours going into the United game was 4th (3rd was not in our hands although a mathematical possibility) and we dropped 2 points from a winning position. If you feel differently, fine, I’m not going to attempt to convince you otherwise, I’ve stated my position with in depth reasoning twice and I’ll leave it at that.
Procrastination is the enemy of success and every point should be fought for as if it was a cup final point.
These players are paid more in a week than most of us make in a year and they can’t concentrate for 90 minutes???
Anything can happen in a season, a number of good players can be injured and leave a team weakened, for that reason the hunger for points should be there from day one.
Your argument that it means more now at the end of the season just doesn’t stand, playing the season with that mindset is very dangerous. It is like a boxer coasting and taking a few punches hoping to knock the other guy out later in the fight but then losing on points.
Who said they should play with less concentration? I said dropped points at the end of the season are more significant to our aims. See my reply to Neil.
Hmm, quite valid points for the most part Dog – apart from that last line, it’s not the best simile is it? After all, I seem to recall a certain Muhammed Ali boxing just that way only to go on and win the World Heavyweight title three times… That said, yes, I agree with Daniels piece and can see the reasoning behind it – though I do wish the lads had put more effort in right through the season, we might’ve been at the point now where such silly errors were no longer part of our game.
You are damn right Sagna has outlived his usefulness Wenger is so blinded to see this the guy can’t defend neither can he present offensive contribution going forward he cost us against bayern and return fixture were it not for injury Jecks couldnt have played and he did put a very decent performance what reward did he get was benched to bring in Sagna…
Your article was lucid enough. Without that Sagna’s error, Arsenal MIGHT have won that game against Man Utd. Suppose, just assuming we finish on same points and goal difference with the Spuds, would the results of both fixtures between the two(head-to-head)come into place?
Yes they would.
Jenkinson is far better, his cross,spirit,and i believe he will defend with his life for Arsenal, he really loved this club. What u gonna do if u really love somebody or something?
You will defend it with all ur life. Thats the point. Put Jenkinson on !!
VCC
Arsenal Indonesia Supporter
A controversial blog to be sure, Daniel. I can’t disagree with your core point, harsh as it is. Mistakes earlier in the season still allow a chance to recover. But mistakes at the end of the season really don’t.
Gibbs’s tackle against WBA was the most important of the season…and the last. Give away a penalty there and the season is lost. No chance to recover.
One FB got it right in 2011/12 and saved the club. One got it wrong in a critical match and put us in a position where we no longer had our fate in our hands.
It’s harsh to scapegoat Sagna, as you said. We should forgive and forget. He has earned that. And I wouldn’t necessarily be in favour of swapping in Jenks at this point. He is still young and I will leave that call to Wenger. And afterall, Sagna IS still extremely experienced.
Even before the challenge, why did Sagna have to put in such a nonchalant backpass to Szechney? That is what gets me head in! Ugh… I really hope the points dropped against United dont come back to bite us in the backside, seriously, because I felt that two weeks prior to the UTD game, that UTD fixture would determine a CL slot considering that it would be out of our hands if Spurs beat Chelsea.
Furthermore, it absolutely drives me mad that Chelsea could finish above us with that already-made midfield of theirs. At least on the other half of North London players like Bale and Lennon become tailored to the players they are today. We are both philosophically and methodically better than the Blues and if we finish 3rd then that serves right. Sure, we may not have beaten them or the Mancs this season, but we have finished the job when and where it counts, especially away, in clean and tidy fashion. Im no sympathizer for the spuds, but to be honest, and fair… if they get into top 4 at the expense of Chelsea then Im gonna have to clap and salute them, but we better be there alongside with them also!
Cheers for the article, good analogy at the end. So true, the finishing touches speak louder than the sparks. As for Wigan… well, ugh, emm, eh, tricky customers them, not going to take anything for granted, but this game feels like 6 pointers for both of us. In the meantime you can get all nostalgic with a blast from the past:
http://youtu.be/hDt30BJe6lA