Coquelin and Elneny cannot start together if Arsenal want an easy afternoon

Match Preview: Sunderland vs Arsenal – Premier League – 29.10.2016

The results of tomorrow’s opponents and Arsenal’s enviable away form has made it easy to settle into complacency. By rights Arsenal should walk all over Sunderland but in recent years the Black Cats have been somewhat of a bogey team for The Arsenal.

However, when you look at how the Gunners struggled to break down Middlesbrough at home last Saturday without Santi Cazorla and combine that with the news the slick Spaniard is unlikely to start tomorrow Arsenal’s odds of winning against Sunderland look generous.

With Tottenham on the horizon it is understandable that the manager will want to be careful with his returning players but it is also a reason not to be too cautious. Momentum will be crucial against a strong Sp*rs side and although Arsenal are unbeaten in 13 and it’s unlikely Sunderland will be able to beat the Gunners they are capable of frustrating us and two stale draws on the bounce in the league is not the sort of form you want to carry into a North London Derby.

For this reason Arsène needs to take some risks be that with player fitness or with selection. If Santi is well enough to play at least 60 minutes then he simply has to start as without him against Middlesbrough we laboured to get the ball from deep midfield to high midfield. Ideally Arsenal will get the game wrapped up by halftime and Santi can be taken off as a precaution.

Should the manager decide that our diminutive maestro is really not fit enough to start then I would like to see Ramsey or Oxlade-Chamberlain start in central midfield. Neither has the incisive passing ability of Cazorla but they will certainly offer more than a flat duo of Coquelin and Elneny. There is a risk of rushing Ramsey back too quickly but it’s a risk I think we should be willing to take if necessary to save Cazorla for Sp*rs. The conundrum with Ox is that Walcott is carrying a small muscular concern and his movement and pace will be crucial in the North London Derby.

Ox must be feeling pretty confident after his turn in the EFL Cup and deserves to remain in the team in some capacity. Sadly Lucas picked up an injury against Reading and Xhaka still has a game left on his ban so despite having a deep squad we do have somewhat of a selection dilemma as we still have Ludogorets to worry about before next Sunday.

Giroud is fit enough to be in consideration for the squad and this might just be the perfect game for his presence. Alexis has done a fine job up front but against a stubborn opponent who will seek only to defend and bereft of a deep playmaker he’ll probably cut a less frustrated figure on the wing.

I’ve no idea how Arsenal are going to line-up but I suspect that the game will be won or drawn based on the selection. Whatever Wenger does he cannot pick Coquelin and Elneny together. Their lack of creativity will be counterproductive as the rest of the team will have to work twice as hard to make chances. I do not see Sunderland giving us a huge upset but with things so tight at the top anything other than a win will feel like a loss.

Predicted Line-up

Cech; Bellerin, Mustafi, Koscielny, Gibbs; Coquelin, Iwobi; Özil; Alexis, Giroud, Oxlade-Chamberlain

I expect to see substitute appearances from Walcott, Elneny and Ramsey.

Match Quote

“When Santi is out we miss the pass from deep midfield to high midfield, security on the ball, getting out of pressure. When we are getting closed down, he gets you out of tight situations and creates openings for the team. There is as well a good understanding between him and Mesut Özil” – Arsène Wenger

Last 3 Meetings

• Sunderland 0-0 Arsenal (24.04.2016)
• Arsenal 3-1 Sunderland (09.01.2016 – FA Cup)
• Arsenal 3-1 Sunderland (05.12.2015)

Form Guide

Arsenal
WDWWW

Sunderland
LLWLD

Opposition watch

Jermain Defoe is expected to return after being on the bench in midweek for the EFL Cup, although Moyes will still be without Sebastian Larsson, Vito Mannone, Fabio Borini, Lee Cattermole and Jan Kirchhoff.

Sunderland are still waiting for a first league win under David Moyes and have collected just two points from their opening nine games. The Black Cats held Arsenal to a stubborn 0-0 draw here last season and will probably set up extremely defensively thinking a draw is the best they can hope for from this match.

Factfile

• Sunderland have won just one of their last 25 Premier League games against Arsenal (D9, L15).
• Arsenal are unbeaten in 13 top-flight matches against Sunderland (W8, D5) and have won on four of their last five league trips to the Stadium of Light.
• David Moyes has lost 14 Premier League games against Arsene Wenger – the only manager he’s lost to as often is Sir Alex Ferguson.
• The last time the Gunners failed to score in back-to-back Premier League games was during a three-match run in January-February this year (against Stoke, Chelsea and Southampton).
• Sunderland’s total of two points from nine games is the worst start to a Premier League season since Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-2000 (one point from nine matches).
• Theo Walcott has had 17 shots on target in this season’s Premier League, more than any other player.
• Jack Rodwell hasn’t won any of the last 34 Premier League games he’s started, the longest run ever by a Premier League player. That includes all 32 of his league starts for Sunderland.
• Since the start of the 2014-15 season, Arsenal have won 65.5% of the Premier League matches in which Santi Cazorla has started (36 out of 55), compared with 40% when he has not (12 out of 30).
• Jermain Defoe has faced Arsenal 21 times in the Premier League but has only scored twice – once for West Ham in January 2003 and again for Tottenham in November 2004.
• Arsenal have only lost one Premier League away game in 2016 (3-2 at Manchester United in February).

Prediction

I’m going for an optimistic 3-0 to Arsenal. Ox, Alexis and Giroud.

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